The market is like a Pollock splatter painting/Important Numbers 2026/Opportunity in a down market

Charlie Brown IV

April 24, 2026

Hello Marathoners-

Spring has a way of resetting everything.

After a long New England winter, the city starts to feel alive again—longer days, warmer air, and that palpable energy that comes with people being back outside. In Boston, nothing captures that transition quite like Marathon Monday.

This year’s race delivered a remarkable showing at the top. John Korir defended his title in record-setting fashion, finishing in an astonishing 2:01:52—breaking the long-standing course record. On the women’s side, Sharon Lokedi also went back-to-back, winning again with a time of 2:18:51.

If the marathon is a reminder of discipline and endurance, the current investment landscape is offering a different kind of lesson.

In just the first few months of the year, we’ve experienced a remarkable sequence of events—economic surprises, geopolitical tensions, sharp rotations in markets, and no shortage of attention-grabbing headlines. Taken together, it can feel less like a coherent narrative and more like something abstract—almost random in its composition.

As Nick Murray recently put it, the current environment resembles ‘a Jackson Pollock splatter painting.’ This resonated with me, as I have seen many of Pollock’s works on display in the MoMA and Whitney museums in NYC, and in general I love Abstract Expressionism and the ‘drip technique’. Pollock revolutionized art in the 1940s and 1950s by laying canvases on the floor and dripping, pouring, or flinging paint, emphasizing the physical act of creation.

With Abstract Expressionism, Pollock’s works aimed to express emotional, subconscious, and universal themes rather than depicting physical reality.

Jackson Pollock, “Fireworks”, 1950 (Whitney Museum of American Art, NYC)

I think this captures how many investors are feeling right now: overwhelmed by the chaos and uncertain about how to interpret it—and what, if anything, should be done in response.

And that uncertainty tends to lead to a very natural question:

Should we be changing something?

History—and experience—suggest that this is precisely the wrong instinct.

One of the more difficult but important principles in investing is that long-term outcomes are not improved by reacting to short-term events, no matter how urgent or significant those events may appear in the moment.

This runs counter to human nature. When markets are volatile and headlines are persistent, the impulse to act can feel not just reasonable, but necessary. But more often than not, it is the impulse—rather than the events themselves—that introduces risk into a well-constructed plan.

This is where the role of a long-term plan becomes essential. A well-constructed investment strategy is not designed for moments when everything feels clear and predictable. It is built specifically to endure periods like this—when uncertainty is elevated, narratives are constantly shifting, and markets are reacting in real time to incomplete information.

That plan is grounded in your goals, your time horizon, and a disciplined allocation designed to capture long-term returns, not short-term headlines. And while the external environment may change rapidly, those underlying principles do not.

Of course, that doesn’t make it easy.

As volatility picks up and commentary grows more urgent, it becomes increasingly tempting to look for signals in the noise—to interpret each new development as something actionable. But markets have a long history of absorbing even the most dramatic events, often in ways that are impossible to predict in advance.

Which is why attempts to adjust course based on current events tend to be less about improving outcomes and more about responding to discomfort.

The better approach—however counterintuitive it may feel—is to remain anchored. To trust the process that was put in place before the current uncertainty arrived. And to recognize that periods like this are not interruptions to the investment journey, but a necessary part of it.

I drew two vastly different analogies/comparisons here, so let me now attempt to tie them together into a simpler, more coherent take-away.

The day-to-day market environment can look chaotic—fragmented, unpredictable, and at times overwhelming, much like the Jackson Pollock splatter painting, and Pollock himself, who had an extremely volatile personality. Yet Pollock’s most famous paintings were made during the ‘drip period’. He has become one of the most influential modern artists, with works now highly coveted and valued in the $10’s and $100’s of millions.

While the market is always going to play out in Pollockesque fashion, our path to long-term financial success remains far more constructed and deliberate—like training for and ultimately running a marathon. Steady, disciplined, and forward-moving, like the runners making their way mile by mile from Hopkinton to Boylston Street.

Next, I’m including two quick-reference guides for 2026—one outlining key financial figures and thresholds, and another highlighting important dates throughout the year. Together, they cover everything from tax brackets and retirement contribution limits to filing deadlines, required distributions, and other planning milestones.

We encourage you to keep these guides handy as a resource so we can help keep you organized and proactive as the year unfolds.

Important Numbers 2026

Important Dates 2026

Opportunity in a down market

Market downturns, while uncomfortable, can create unique planning opportunities—particularly when it comes to Roth conversions. When the value of a traditional IRA declines, the tax cost of converting those assets to a Roth IRA is reduced, since taxes are owed on the lower market value at the time of conversion.

In the example below, an IRA that declines from $100,000 to $70,000 allows for a conversion at a significantly reduced tax cost. If markets recover over time—as they historically have—the subsequent growth occurs inside the Roth IRA, where future gains can be withdrawn tax-free. In contrast, waiting until the account recovers before converting results in a higher taxable amount and, ultimately, a larger tax bill.

This strategy highlights a broader principle: volatility can be used constructively when viewed through a long-term lens. By proactively converting during periods of market weakness, investors may not only reduce current taxes but also increase the amount of assets positioned for tax-free growth over time.

Of course, Roth conversions are not one-size-fits-all, and this is not tax advice. The decision depends on factors such as current and expected future tax rates, time horizon, and overall financial plan. But in the right circumstances, periods of market decline can offer a compelling opportunity to enhance long-term tax efficiency.